Will Covid-19 Be Here Forever?

I ran across something on Bloomberg News the other day that was frankly very disturbing. They have a “calculator” for how long Covid will last based on the vaccination rate. More than 381 million doses have been administered across 126 countries, according to data collected by Bloomberg. The latest rate was roughly 9.10 million doses a day. In the U.S. 109 million doses have been given….an average of 2.3 million doses/day! At this rate, it will take an estimated 5 months to cover 75% of the population with a two-dose vaccine. It’s a really interesting site loaded with world and national information. You can access it here: https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/

Now it’s not quite as easy as it sounds and you would THINK in 5-6 months we will have reached “herd immunity”. When most of a population is immune to an infectious disease, this provides indirect protection—or herd immunity (also called herd protection)—to those who are not immune to the disease. Think of it this way; if 80% of a population is immune to a virus, four out of every five people who encounter someone with the disease won’t get sick (and won’t spread the disease any further). In this way, the spread of infectious diseases is kept under control. Depending how contagious an infection is, usually 50% to 90% of a population needs immunity to achieve herd immunity. Epidemiologists around the world (AND all the Facebook Certified epidemiologists!) are looking at long and short term projections of what will happen with Covid. Currently they agree on 2 things: Covid is HERE TO STAY and the future depends on a lot of unknowns.

So where can this “herd immunity” timeline go wrong? First of all it depends on people’s behaviors. If you don’t GET the vaccine for whatever reason (see my anti-vaxxer article) your only option is to GET THE VIRUS. That may be fine for 98% of people but you may end up with Post Covid Syndrome and an immunity that’s transient. Currently it seems that antibodies from actual infection decrease over time and all ready we’re seeing SECOND infections in some people. If immunity to the virus lasts less than a year, for example, similar to other human coronaviruses , there could be annual surges in COVID-19 infections through to 2025 and beyond. And of course it’s not really only a 2% mortality rate if you’re over 70…..closer to 15%! Here’s a HUGE problem. As of last month 30% of Americans say they are UNLIKELY to get the vaccine. The poll found that people ages 30-44, Republican voters and people without college degrees were among the most likely to say that they “definitely will not” get a COVID-19 vaccine when one becomes available to them. I’m not sure what ELSE that tells us about Republicans! The biggest reason why they won’t get the vaccine is concerns over side effects. Anti-Social Media is rampant with conspiracy theories and incorrect information about the vaccine. Everything from it turning you into a GMO, microchips to track you, Bill Gates master plan, the Illuminati and Rockefeller’s conspiracy and the best of all…..that Covid ITSELF doesn’t really exist! All ignoring the 535,000 deaths in America alone.

Another problem is mutations. The longer Covid is around the more likely it will mutate further than it already has. It’s just what viruses do to survive! Thus the need for a different flu vaccine every year. So far new or “novel” Covid mutations have developed in the U.S., Great Britain, South Africa and just last month Japan. These variants seem to be MORE contagious. Vaccines made by Moderna and Pfizer seem to work against the new variants, although Moderna has begun developing a booster shot specific to new variants. It’s not clear yet how effective the J&J vaccine will be against variants. It also seems that those whose only immunity is from having had Covid may be more susceptible to reinfection with one of the variants. Most vaccines cause a much stronger immune reaction than a natural infection with a virus. And in clinical trials for its vaccine, Moderna found that the antibodies produced after vaccination may last longer than those naturally produced after Covid infection. You can read more about this here: https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-most-worrying-mutations-in-five-emerging-coronavirus-variants/

So what else could happen with Covid? Well, there are some that believe it will naturally decline as the weather get’s warmer. I’m not sure that’s likely when you consider that Florida’s highest rates were last summer. Will we reach herd immunity in 2021? I’d say the odds of that are around 50/50. I think as more people get vaccinated and can ditch the mask those “vaccine hesitant” will get on the train before it leaves the station. Additionally I think they may be more likely to get vaccinated IF there are no longer term side effects developing from the vaccine. The problem is that there ARE some real questions about safety with one of the newer vaccines being made by Astra-Zeneca. Several countries have already stopped administering that one due to blood clotting issues! I guess the Illuminati screwed that one up! So let’s say we achieve enough vaccinations for herd immunity some time in 2022. Of course the mutated Covid variants are of huge concern as we could see new waves of infection and Biden wanting us all to hide in the basement with him! Some states will continue their Draconian lock downs which have been questionable at best and other states like my beloved Florida will stay open and ride it out. To my mind the problem with lock downs is that THEY DON’T WORK and are MUCH more damaging to not only the economy but to people’s mental well being!…..but that’s an article for another day.

How about “therapeutics”…..the use of treatments and medications for Covid? A lot of progress has been made on this front as well and will continue. If you DO get Covid there are a few things now being done that are helpful. We have Avigan, Remdesivir, Dexamethasone (a steroid), the monoclonal antibody bamlanivimab alone and in combination with etesevimab as well as Regeneron’s casirivimab and imdevimab. You can read more about these options here: https://drjonsicu.com/whats-a-polyclonal-antibody-cocktail-with-pepcid-on-the-side/ People are also being treated with antibodies collected from blood donations from those who already had Covid. There are many studies being done worldwide and good progress is being made. As for hydroxychloroquine….so far it hasn’t been statistically shown to help. On the nutritional front obviously keeping your immune system healthy is important and Vitamins C and D and Zinc are helpful. Melatonin has also reportedly been helpful.

So we’re in better shape than we were a year ago. Life is pretty normal here in Florida and Covid test positivity rate has actually started to drop below 5% on several days recently. The WHO considers <5% low. So thank you Governor DeSantis for a terrific vaccination program. I think things will open up a bit more this summer but 2021 will be a lot like 2020 if kids don’t get back to school, sports don’t restart and people don’t start living again. I got vaccinated and I’m happy I did. Do I recommend it for everyone……no. I don’t think women of child bearing age should get it …..YET…..and I don’t think kid’s under 18 need to try this VERY new vaccine. I would have preferred to sit back and watch for awhile longer but then I had too many friends getting sick and several are STILL not fully recovered. You roll the dice sometimes and take your chances! Stay well and thank you for reading!!