Our 20 Year War In Afghanistan In 5 Minutes

The “news” is reporting our withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan by August 31, 2021. The Afghanistan war has been the longest war America has been in, nearly 20 years. How did we get there, why are we leaving, what has it cost and what will likely happen next in Afghanistan?

First a little background history on the country of Afghanistan. It is essentially a land that has been at war forever whether due to foreign conquerors or internal fighting among tribes. It has been christened the “graveyard of empires“. Historically even the strongest of empires, may be successful at first in an invasion, but that none can maintain an occupation in this state. Geographically it sits between Europe and Asia. It has been ruled by Alexander the Great in 329 BC, Mahmud of Gazni who created an empire from Iran to India in the 11th century and Genghis Khan in the 13th century. It wasn’t until the 1700’s that the area was united as a single country. By 1870, after the area had been invaded by various Arab conquerors, Islam had taken root. During the 1800’s Britain attempted to take the land over in a series of wars, ultimately are defeated and Afghanistan becomes an independent country in 1921. It becomes a monarchy and is relatively stable up until the 1950’s when it becomes pro-Soviet. Gen. Mohammed Daoud Khan, cousin of the king, becomes prime minister and looks to Russia for economic and military assistance.  In 1973 Khan overthrows the last king, Mohammed Zahir Shah, in a military coup. Khan abolishes the monarchy and names himself president. The Republic of Afghanistan is established with firm ties to the USSR. In 1978 Khan is assassinated and the Afghan Communist Party takes control of the country. They proclaim independence from Soviet influence, and declare their policies to be based on Islamic principles, Afghan nationalism and socioeconomic justice. Conservative Islamic and ethnic leaders who objected to social changes introduced by Khan begin an armed revolt in the countryside. The guerrilla movement, Mujaheddin, is created to battle the Soviet-backed government. By early 1980, the Mujaheddin rebels have united against Soviet invaders and the USSR-backed Afghan Army. They receive arms from the United States, Britain and China via Pakistan. In September, 1988 Osama bin Laden and 15 other Islamists form the group al-Qaida to continue their jihad, or holy war, against the Soviets and other who they say oppose their goal of a nation governed by Islam.  In 1989 the U.S., Pakistan, Afghanistan, and the Soviet Union sign peace accords in Geneva guaranteeing Afghan independence and the withdrawal of 100,000 Soviet troops. By 1995 a newly formed Islamic militia, the Taliban, rises to power. The Taliban outlaw cultivation of poppies for the opium trade, crack down on crime, and curtail the education and employment of women. Women are required to be fully veiled and are not allowed outside alone. Islamic law is enforced via public executions and amputations.  These are NOT nice people! In 1998  al-Qaida bombs two American embassies in Africa. President Clinton launches an unsuccessful cruise missile attack on an al-Qaida training camp. By 2000 Osama bin Laden is widely believed to be hiding in Afghanistan, where he is cultivating thousands of followers in terrorist training camps. Finally on September 11, 2001 hijackers believed to be backed by bin Laden commandeer four jets and crash them into the World Trade Center , the Pentagon and a Pennsylvania field.

Phew……so that’s how America got there for the next 20 years. On October 7, 2001  U.S. and British forces launch airstrikes against targets in Afghanistan against the Taliban and al-Qaida. Over the next 2 months the Taliban are “defeated” and the previously exiled Hamid Karzai becomes the leader of the interim government in Afghanistan. Over the next 10 years U.S. and NATO troops continue to battle the Taliban and al-Qaida. In 2009 President Obama announces a new strategy for the Afghanistan war that would dispatch more military and civilian trainers to the country, in addition to the 17,000 more combat troops he previously ordered. This goes on until 2014 when NATO officially ends its combat mission in Afghanistan. BUT the U.S. led NATO troops remain to train and advise Afghan forces. By 2017, Trump is elected and delegates decision-making authorities to commanders, including the possibility of adding several thousand U.S. troops to the nearly nine thousand already deployed there. The Taliban appears to be as strong as ever, and the U.S. military describes the war as a stalemate. President Trump says his “original instinct was to pull out,” but instead he would proceed with an open-ended military commitment to prevent the emergence of “a vacuum for terrorists.” During February 2019 there are “peace talks” between the U.S. and Taliban, but these are ultimately called off by September of 2019. Talks continue through 2020, but really get nowhere. In February 2020 Trump had removed thousands of U.S. troops. After the November 2020 U.S. “election” Acting U.S. Defense Secretary Christopher C. Miller reduced the number of troops in Afghanistan to 2,500.  

Biden gets sworn in January 2021. On April 14, 2021 he announces that the United States will not meet the deadline set under the U.S.-Taliban agreement to withdraw all troops by May 1 and instead releases a plan for a full withdrawal by September 11, 2021. NATO troops in Afghanistan will also leave. The Taliban says it will not participate in “any conference” on Afghanistan’s future until all foreign troops leave. Did you know that Congress HAS NEVER VOTED ON THE U.S. GOING TO WAR IN AFGHANISTAN????

So what did this FIASCO cost? Here you go:

KILLED

• American service members killed in Afghanistan through April: 2,448
• U.S. contractors: 3,846
• Afghan national military and police: 66,000
• Other allied service members, including other NATO member states: 1,144
• Afghan civilians: 47,245
• Aid workers: 444
• Journalists: 72
• Taliban and other opposition fighters: 51,191
• May 2, 2011 Osama bin Laden killed!!

FINANCIAL COST

• Estimated amount of direct Afghanistan and Iraq war costs that the United States has debt-financed as of 2020: $2 trillion (that looks like this: $2,000,000,000,000 !!!!)
• Estimated interest payments on that $2 trillion so far: $925 billion.
• Estimated interest costs by 2030: $2 trillion.
• Estimated interest costs by 2050: $6.5 trillion
• Estimates the U.S. has committed to pay in health care, disability, burial and other costs for roughly 4 million Afghanistan and Iraq veterans: $1.6 to $1.8 trillion

Finally let’s look at what will happen NEXT in Afghanistan. Taliban forces are rapidly taking control of the entire country. The Foundation for Defense of Democracies’ (FDD) describes the security situation in Afghanistan as “rapidly” deteriorating, noting that in the six days ending July 5, the Taliban had taken control of nearly 10% of the entire country.  They add that the Taliban controls 195 of Afghanistan’s 407 districts and contests another 129 as of July 5 compared to its control of just 73 and contest of 210 on May 1! What’s the Pentagon have to say about the deteriorating situation? Well, John Kirby the Pentagon Press Secretary said yesterday officials are watching the Taliban’s sweeping advances in Afghanistan “with deep concern” and are encouraging its Afghan partners to “step up” and defend their country amid the pullout of U.S. forces. In other words “Best of Luck!!” There is a high likelihood of an eventual collapse of a pro-American government and its Afghan army, and a Taliban takeover. That could open the door for Afghanistan to again serve as a safe haven and operations center for Islamic extremists, including al Qaeda and the Islamic State, still intent on harming the America. A Taliban takeover would likely also produce a humanitarian disaster, including revenge against Afghans who supported the U.S. and those who oppose radical Islamic rule, and the rollback of significant gains made by Afghan women. That’s been Afghanistan’s history for thousand of years and it looks like it will continue. The decision to leave is one of the few bipartisan issues in D.C. and America has decided to leave this “unwinnable” war. It’s not likely to end well.