Did Sweden’s Covid Policy Work?

Unlike most of the rest of the world, Sweden NEVER declared large scale lockdowns. Recently Sweden has flattened their curve but at what expense and have they developed herd immunity? Herd immunity is thought to exist when around 60-70% of a population either has HAD a disease or recieved a vaccine for that disease. In late July, Sweden’s 7 day moving average of new cases was about 200, down from a peak of around 1,140 in mid-June. Its daily death totals have been in the single digits for two weeks, well below its mid-April peak of 115 deaths in a single day. On a per-capita basis, Sweden far outpaces its Scandinavian neighbors in COVID deaths, with 567 deaths per million people compared with Denmark’s 106 deaths per million, Finland’s 59 deaths per million, and Norway’s 47 deaths per million. The Swedish figure is closer to Italy’s 581 deaths per million.

How has their economy fared? Their GDP fell 8.6% during the three-month period ending in June. During a similar time frame Spain’s dropped 18.5%, Portugal’s 14.1%, France 13.8%. The EU as a whole saw a drop of 11.9%. Sweden has said their lack of a strict lockdown was NOT for economic reasons. Rather it’s aim was “to save lives and reduce pressure on the country’s health care system.” Sweden’s unemployment rate rose to 9.4% in June, the highest figure since 1998, and up more than 2 percentage points from the beginning of the year.

Sweden’s chief epidemiologist at the Swedish Public Health Agency,  Anders Tegnell, PhD. was the “architect” of the no lockdown strategy. He feels that it has been successful while the population isn’t as enthusiastic. Two dozen Swedish academics published a recent USA Today editorial.

“In Sweden, the strategy has led to death, grief, and suffering,” they wrote. “On top of that, there are no indications that the Swedish economy has fared better than in many other countries. At the moment, we have set an example for the rest of the world on how not to deal with a deadly infectious disease.”

So what DID Sweden’s Covid plan look like?

• Only high schools and universities closed; daycare and elementary schools have been open.
• Businesses have also remained open, but typically at reduced hours, and restaurants have functioned at reduced capacity.
• People were asked to keep their distance in public, refrain from non-essential travel, and work from home when possible. 
• Gatherings of more than 50 people are also banned. People age 70 and over are advised to stay away from others as much as possible.
• Masks were never required and aren’t commonly worn.

Has Sweden actually approached herd immunity? Experts don’t think so. BUT some studies done there have shown that positive T-Cell immunity in newer tests is twice as high as believed they would be. “The public immunity to COVID-19 is probably much higher than what antibody studies have suggested,” says Mozhu Ding, PhD, an epidemiologist at the famed Karolinska Institute. Their study showed that about 30% of people with mild or asymptomatic COVID showed T-cell-mediated immunity to the virus, even though they tested negative for antibodies! What does that mean in simple terms? It shows that people with negative antibody test results could still be immune to the virus at a cellular level. A paper published in Nature in mid-July found that among 37 healthy people who had no history of either the first or current SARS virus, more than half had T cells that recognized one or more of the SARS-CoV-2 proteins. These are protiens COMMON to SARS viruses one of which is Covid-19.

So that’s some of the Swedish story. Were they more successful than anyone else?….not really. Much of what they DID do is VERY similar to the approach that has been taken successfully in the U.S. to flatten the curve. While there economy hasn’t been crushed quite as badly as the rest of Europe they are still deeply affected. AND their death rate was VERY bad during the middle part of the Spring. Much like here about half of Sweden’s 5,730 deaths occurred among those in elder care homes.

Covid seems to be here to stay for the foreseeable future. Fauci is probably right about things being pretty much what they are through 2021. This is STILL a worldwide pandemic with LOTS of steam left. The NEW NORMAL…….continue to be smart…..read my other post https://drjonsicu.com/how-to-safely-relax-your-covid-lockdown/ and I’ll keep you up to date on where we’re at!